Leading indicators index shows second month of dragging R.I. economy in June
PROVIDENCE – A slowdown in Rhode Island’s economic recovery continued in June, according to the Providence Business News/e-forecasting.com index of leading economic indicators.
The composite index for the state during June rose 0.5 percent to 113.5, similar to the 0.4 percent increase in May, but significantly lower than the near 2 percent increases seen in March and April. A reading of 100 is equivalent to the state’s economic activity in 2000.
The index is comprised of nine statistics used to forecast the direction of Rhode Island’s economy for the next three to six months, with positive numbers signaling growth and negative numbers signaling decline.
In June, five of the nine statistics saw positive growth, with a 2.1 percent rise in regional consumer expectations leading the group. Weekly hours in manufacturing, exports of manufactures, interest rate spread and the national technology index also saw improvement during the month.
Meanwhile, this growth was countered with an increase in unemployment claims and decreases in building permits, national stock prices and the outlook for the Canadian economy. Of these, stock prices posted the largest negative contribution to the index with a 3.78 decrease in June.
The six-month growth rate of the index also climbed at a slower pace, falling to an increase of 16.6 percent from 18.5 percent in May. This growth rate translates to a long-term annual growth rate of 2.4 percent. The six-month growth rate had peaked at 20.5 percent in April after increasing each month since September 2009.